Bitcoin Could Possibly Surpass $69K All-Time High Before Halving Due to Two Factors

The data from previous cycles surrounding Bitcoin halvings, coupled with analysis of a key technical indicator known as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests a favorable outlook for Bitcoin’s price in the near future.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to bottom out 12-16 months prior to halving events and typically experiences upward trends leading up to and for a year after the halving occurs. In the eight weeks preceding previous halving events, Bitcoin prices surged by over 30%, driven by the reduction in the pace of supply expansion by 50%. With the upcoming halving on April 19, which will halve the per-block reward to 3.25 BTC from 6.5 BTC, a similar price surge is anticipated. Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, highlighted that Bitcoin typically rallies an average of 32% in the 60 days preceding a halving event, indicating that prices could potentially reach close to the record high of $69,000 by or before the halving day.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder, has shown bullish signals for Bitcoin. A week ago, Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI crossed above 80 for the first time since December. According to 10X Research, 12 out of 14 similar instances of this RSI signal in the past have preceded accelerated uptrends, resulting in an average gain of 54% in the following 60 days. Based on this historical data, Bitcoin could potentially rally to around $74,600.

While past performance does not guarantee future results and macroeconomic factors can influence trends, the current macroeconomic environment appears supportive of increased risk-taking, with the U.S. implementing stimulative fiscal policies. This sentiment is echoed by Goldman Sachs, which has raised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500, citing expectations for robust global economic growth and a weaker dollar.

Overall, both historical data surrounding Bitcoin halvings and analysis of the RSI indicator suggest a bullish outlook for Bitcoin’s price in the coming months, with the potential for prices to surpass previous record highs.